The Department of Health report says that half the population could develop symptoms of the disease, possibly “overwhelming” hospitals and doctors as well as costing the economy £28billion, but police and the army would be unable to help as their forces would also be depleted.
It says the outbreak of a new influenza pandemic is “one of the greatest threats facing the UK” as it could not be stopped from spreading and vaccines would take months to develop.
However the report also points out that the wave of swine flu that spread from Mexico two years ago was “very mild” in comparison with previous pandemics, although the public wrongly believed that the “worst-case scenario” was likely to take hold.
The UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011 is the first update to official advice since the H1N1 virus killed “significantly less than one million” people in 2009. In Britain, 457 people died from the pandemic flu strain between June 200 and March 2010.
By contrast, the 1918-19 “Spanish Flu” outbreak killed up to 50million while the “Asian Flu” pandemic of 1957-58 and the “Hong Kong flu” a decade later each killed up to 4million.
Flu
But the report says the authorities in Britain must remain prepared for another pandemic, and based on the “reasonable worst case” assessment, “up to 50% of the population could experience symptoms of pandemic influenza during a single pandemic wave lasting 15 weeks, although the nature and severity of the symptoms would vary from person to person.”
Although the number of extra deaths is “impossible to predict”, it says: “Local authorities in conjunction with local service providers should ensure that they have plans in place to surge their capacity to cope with an increase in burials and cremations during a pandemic (for up to 200,000).”
It warns: “In a severe pandemic, factors such as pressures on the health services, potential prioritisation of clinical countermeasures, measures to control the spread of infection, possible shortages of basic necessities or short-lived disruption to essential services could result in disturbances or threaten breakdowns in public order.”
However there will be “reduced police availability through illness”, and the Armed Forces “will be equally vulnerable to illness”.
The report says “it will not be possible to stop the spread or eradicate the pandemic influenza virus… as it will spread too rapidly and too widely”.
There is “very little evidence” that wearing face masks slows the spread of the illness, and the Government says it has “no plans” to close borders, restrict public gatherings or shut schools because it may not help and may damage “public morale” as well as the economy.
Although the Government has stockpiled two types of antiviral medicines that can reduce symptoms of flu, a vaccine specific to any new strain could take “at least four to six months” to develop.
Treatment or protective vaccines are likely to be restricted to at-risk groups, such as young children or pregnant women, or frontline health workers.
Normal hospital services would have to be rationed “in an ethically appropriate way” as the NHS would be “at risk of being overwhelmed” in a short pandemic.
Citizens would be told to develop a “household emergency plan” and to help friends and neighbours who are ill, as well as more basic advice on hand-washing.
However the study admits that it is difficult for the Government to communicate clearly the potential risks as well as the actual situation during an outbreak.
It says: “A lesson learned from the 2009 influenza pandemic was that calling the planning assumptions ‘reasonable’ was not well-understood.
“Many people wrongly thought that it meant this was the likely scenario.”
Diane Abbott, Labour’s shadow public health spokesman, said: “There needs to be a pre-emptive vaccination campaign targeted at children and young people, which could help to avert a major pandemic.”
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Most of the Britons killed by the winter flu epidemic that swept the country were young or middle-aged due, according to official figures.
Altogether 602 people died from influenza during the winter of 2010, which was higher than the total during the 2009 global pandemic when 474 died.
More than 70 per cent (415) of those were aged between 15 and 64, despite the common belief that frail, old people are more at risk.
This was because the swine flu strain, which affected more younger people, claimed the most victims with 562 deaths linked to H1N1 last year.
Also just half of those at risk in this age group had been immunised against flu, according to the Health Protection Agency’s annual flu report.
Britons in these young and middle-aged groups visited their GPs more to complain of flu-like symptoms, according to the Health Protection Agency’s annual flu report.
These groups also had higher hospital admission rates.
The North of England was the worst hit area. While the highly-populated London and South East regions had a combined death toll of 91, there were 83 deaths in the Yorkshire and Humber region and 96 in the North West.
Twenty-five of those that died were children and nine were pregnant women.
It is likely more people died in 2009 and 2010 with flu as a contributory factor as the records only counted people where flu was cited as the major cause of death.
Professor John Watson, head of the agency’s respiratory diseases department, said:
‘ The information published in our annual flu report confirms that seasonal flu activity in 2010/11 was higher than last winter and that H1N1 ‘swine’ flu was the dominant strain.
‘ Sadly, a small proportion of flu cases resulted in serious illness and death, predominantly in young and middle aged adults.
‘ Each year, hundreds of thousands of people catch flu and the majority will make a full recovery.
‘ Traditionally, the elderly have been more seriously affected by winter flu, but the picture is beginning to change as we are now seeing a higher proportion of young and middle-aged people taken seriously ill.’